Political expert Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University has created a model that, when applied retroactively, has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of the very close 2000 election. Now, the model has been applied to the current election, and you may be surprised who it says will win.
According to IJ Review, the Norpoth model has predicted that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Despite the fact that Clinton is ahead in many polls, Norpoth is standing by his results.
“If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it,” Norpoth told The Post. “It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”
The model makes it’s prediction by looking at how the candidates performed in the primaries and the caucuses. It then concludes that the stronger performer will be the one who wins the election.
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